Epidemic

A simple model of epidemic dynamics. We define individual agents with different disease states. The progression of disease moves from succeptible to exposed to infectious (either symptomatic or asymptomatic) to some outcome state. Agents can transmit infection to their immediate neighbors. For some background on the general approach, see Joshua M. Epstein. "Generative Social Science". 2006. Princeton. Copyright 2009, Miles Parker. Released under Eclipse Public License. All uses should be attributed.

Parameters

Individual Count (int, default: 250)
The number of individuals to create.
Initial Infection Probability (double, default: .05)
The probability that any given individual will be infected at the beginning of the model run. For example, if this value is .15, and their are 100 individuals in the model, roughly 15 of those individuals will be infected at time 0.
Min Contact Transmission Probability (double, default: .08)
The minimum probability that proximity to a single neighbor for a single period will result in transmission of infection. At the start of each model run, each individual is assigned a contact transmission probability between the minimum and maximum value. For example, if this value was .08 and the maximum value was 0.12 a given individual could have any value between those two, but the average transmission probability would be around .1. If minium and maximum values are the same, then all individuals will have the same chance of passing along infection to a given neighbor. This value must be between 0.0 and 1.0 and less than or equal to Max Contact transmission Probability.
Max Contact Transmission Probability (double, default: .16)
The maximum probability that proximity to a single neighbor for a single period will result in transmission of infection. See Min Contact Probability for more information. Must be a value between 0.0 and 1.0 and greater or equal to Min Contact Transmission Probability.
Case Mortality Rate (double, default: .05)
The current probability that death will occur for a given individual as a result of infection. Some number between 0.0 and 1.0.
Periods per Day (int, default: 24)

Min Period Exposure (int, default: 15)
The minimum amount of time from initial exposure to infectious asymptomatic or symptomatic state. 0 or greater.
Max Period Exposure (int, default: 24)
Maximum time from initial exposure to infectious asymptomatic or symptomatic state. 0 or greater.
Min Period Asymptom Infection (int, default: 24)
Maximum time spent infected without showing symptoms. 0 or greater.
Max Period Asymptom Infection (int, default: 48)
Maximum time spent infected without showing symptoms. May be zero!
Min Period Symptom Infection (int, default: 24)
Minimum time spent infected with obvious symptoms. 0 or greater.
Max Period Symptom Infection (int, default: 168)
Maximum time spent infected with obvious symptoms. 1 or greater.
Movement Probability (double, default: .5)
The chance that an agent will move within a given period. May be any value between 0.0 and 1.0.

Individual

Attributes

Status (StatusEnum, default: Susceptible)

Exposure End Period (int, default: )

Asymptomatic End Period (int, default: )

Outcome Period (int, default: )

Contact Transmission Probability (double, default: )

Behaviors

Initialize Location

Movement

Initialize State

Transmission

Progression

Exposure
Watch for changes in Status.

Place

Attributes

Behaviors

Projections

City (2-Dimensional Grid)

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